We’re officially at the point in the Kentucky Derby trail where things start to separate—and right now, two horses have clearly moved to the top.
Renegade stamped himself as the most dangerous horse in the crop with a dominant Arkansas Derby victory, while Commandment backed up his rise with a gritty Florida Derby win. Behind them, things remain fluid, with several contenders still trying to make their final statement.
As always, these rankings combine input from myself, Aaron Halterman, and Hall of Fame handicapper Jon White, all of whom are official voters in the NTRA Top 3-Year-Old Poll.
Let’s dive in 👇
🥇 1. Renegade
(Jared: 1 | Aaron: 1 | Jon: 2)
There’s no debating it anymore—Renegade is the horse to beat right now.
His Arkansas Derby win was the most visually impressive prep performance we’ve seen this season. The way he circled the field and powered home suggests he’s sitting on a peak effort heading into Churchill Downs.
If he takes even a small step forward off that race, he’s going to be incredibly tough to deny.
Next Start: Kentucky Derby
🥈 2. Commandment
(Jared: 2 | Aaron: 2 | Jon: 1)
If Renegade is the flash, Commandment is the fighter.
He proved once again in the Florida Derby that he doesn’t need everything to go his way—he just finds a way to win. That kind of toughness is a huge asset heading into a chaotic race like the Kentucky Derby.
He’s as tough as they come in this crop.
Next Start: Kentucky Derby
🥉 3. The Puma
(Jared: 4 | Aaron: 3 | Jon: 4)
Another big effort in the Florida Derby keeps The Puma firmly in the top tier.
He continues to show tactical versatility and consistency, and he feels like the type of horse that could work out a dream trip on Derby Day. He hasn’t broken through yet—but he’s right there.
Next Start: Kentucky Derby
4. Silent Tactic
(Jared: 3 | Aaron: 6 | Jon: NR)
Silent Tactic is certainly one of the best horses in this crop—and arguably the most consistent.
He shows up every time and runs his race against top competition, which is more than you can say for most in this group. But as we get closer to the Kentucky Derby, the big question remains—does he have the ability to win the big one?
The talent is undeniable. Now it’s about finding that extra gear when it matters most. Has done more than enough to belong in the Top 10.
Next Start: Kentucky Derby
5. Chief Wallabee
(Jared: 5 | Aaron: 4 | Jon: NR)
Didn’t quite deliver the finishing kick in the Florida Derby, but there’s still plenty to like.
He’s lightly raced, still developing, and has shown flashes that suggest he belongs with this group. If he moves forward again, he’s a major player. Easily falls within the Top 10.
Next Start: Kentucky Derby
6. Class President
(Jared: 6 | Aaron: 5 | Jon: 5)
Class President continues to quietly be one of the top horses in the crop.
His Rebel Stakes performance was eye-opening, but now it’s about proving he can replicate that effort against the very best as we move closer to Louisville.
He needs to make another move forward this weekend in the Blue Grass Stakes.
Next Start: Blue Grass Stakes
7. Emerging Market
(Jared: 7 | Aaron: 7 | Jon: 3)
The biggest wildcard in the top 10—and maybe the most dangerous.
He continues to climb the rankings with each performance, and Jon has him all the way up at #3. The talent is undeniable, but the question remains whether he has enough experience.
If he does—look out.
Next Start: Kentucky Derby
8. Fulleffort
(Jared: 9 | Aaron: 8 | Jon: 6)
Fulleffort continues to climb the rankings as one of the more intriguing developing runners after his impressive win in the Jeff Ruby Steaks.
He’s shown steady improvement and looks like the type of horse that could absolutely make some noise underneath in the Kentucky Derby with the right pace setup.
Next Start: Kentucky Derby
9. Potente
(Jared: 8 | Aaron: 10 | Jon: NR)
Not flashy, but consistent.
He continues to show up and run competitive races, which keeps him in the conversation. In a wide-open Derby, that kind of reliability can go a long way.
Like Class President, we need to see him make another move forward this weekend in the Santa Anita Derby.
Next Start: Santa Anita Derby
10. Further Ado
(Jared: 10 | Aaron: NR | Jon: NR)
Still flying under the radar, but there’s enough here to take seriously.
He profiles as a deeper closer who could benefit if things completely fall apart up front—something that’s always in play on Derby Day.
Big race this weekend for him to prove he belongs in the Derby conversation.
Next Start: Blue Grass Stakes
Just Missed
Incredibolt (Aaron: 9)
Pavlovian (Jon: 7)
Wonder Dean (Jon: 8)
Denon Bourbon (Jon: 9)
Nearly (Jon: 10)
Final Thoughts
We’re close—but we’re not there yet.
One more round of prep races remains, and if this trail has shown us anything, it’s how quickly things can change.
👉 This list will likely look completely different following the conclusion of this week.
And that’s exactly what makes this the best time of year.
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