Fair odds for the Preakness: Derby winner Mage takes on a new opponent

When Mage won the 2023 Kentucky Derby (G1) at odds of 15-1, he went from being the hunter to the hunted in the Preakness Stakes (G1), which will be held on May 20 at Pimlico.

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In the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) and the Florida Derby (G1), Mage came in second place both times behind Juvenile champion Forte. With that threat removed on Saturday at Churchill Downs, Mage defeated Two Phil’s and 16 other horses to establish himself as the dominant horse.

First Mission, the Lexington Stakes (G3) winner, should be given more consideration due to the presence of the Derby winner.

First Mission has the lowest odds (6-1) among the horses still in the Preakness field from the first future wager, although he is unlikely to have the lowest odds on race day due to Mage (and potentially others).

The value, if Mage and First Mission are both underlays, would lie in the second tier of candidates, which includes National Treasure and Derby veterans Confidence Game and Disarm. 

The new shooter National Treasure is intriguing from an odds standpoint at 13-1. The supplementary entry Perform is included in this area as well.

Beyond that top six, everyone else is considered a long shot at this point.

First Mission’s popularity indicates that the conventional wisdom that Derby contenders are the safest bets for the Preakness may be changing. 

Like Mage, Justify did not race as a juvenile but went on to win the Preakness. Justify finished up the Triple Crown with a Belmont Stakes victory. 

The 15-1 Mage Wins the Kentucky Derby

With so many scratches in the final two days before the race, using Mage in place of Forte was a smart move.

You can learn more about horse racing facts from Outplayed extra places.

Long Shots Perform Well

The pre-race fixed odds on the long shots at the Kentucky Derby paid off handsomely. Two Phil and Disarm, who finished in the top two slots in the Superfecta, were solid long shots to play in the Derby.

Disarm, the lone Top Long Shot selection that did not change before the race, finished out the Superfecta at odds of 27-1.