Belmont Oaks Preview: Catch A Glimpse Looks to Extend Winning Streak

Likely Winners

#7 Ballydoyle – This filly has run in four straight tough Group 1 events and has won once and finished second twice in those starts.  Her only poor effort was last time out over soft ground, but the forecast looks good for her getting a firm surface in this race.  Before those Group 1 races she was a winner in a Group 2 which was also over a turf course that wasn’t quite as soft as last time out.  As we always say Aidan O’Brien is extremely tough in races like this one, and while Coolmore will surely take money I believe this filly is his best entry in the race.  It will also help her workout a trip in this spot as she draws right in the middle.  If she breaks well it could become a good place to be.  Just think she might be a bit stronger than her American counter parts.

#4 Time and Motion – She hasn’t won seven in a row like Catch a Glimpse, but she’s won three in a row including last time out at a mile and one eighth.  That race showed me she’s going to run well at the distance of this race which is something I’m not sure about with Catch a Glimpse.  Ever since John Velazquez has jumped aboard this horse is undefeated, and he’s on her back again today.  I don’t think at a distance shorter than this that she is as good as Catch a Glimpse, but at this distance I’ll give a her a very slight edge.  Certainly a horse that is on the rise and improving with each start.

#12 Catch a Glimpse – Seven straight wins for this monster now as she’s becoming one of my favorite horses in training.  Out of those seven straight wins I have picked her 5 times with the only two times I’ve picked against her being the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf and last time out in the Penn Mile.  I was utterly stupid for picking against her last time at a distance she loved.  Despite the fact she was facing the boys it didn’t matter as she just crushed her competition.  However, now she may truly be up against her kryptonite as this mile and a quarter distance is going to be a daunting task for a horse that looks like she gets tired at a mile and one sixteenth.  Plus she breaks from the 12 hole…this is going to be an ultra tough test for a very good filly.

Exotic Plays

#13 Coolmore – One of the classier horses in the field…but also got a terrible outside draw for this race where every little detail is going to matter.  Not a fan of her missing the board in each of her last four starts even though she’s ran in some tough spots.  This could be just as tough today, and the distance of this race is a question mark.    You can’t count out O’Brien, but I like his other runner a bit more.

#11 Magnamine – She’s the least talked about of the three international horses in this race, but her resume still looks to be pretty solid.  Last time out she ran against Group 1 company and finished fifth, but was only beaten by two lengths.  Previously she had won a smaller stakes and also finished second in a smaller stakes the race before that one.  Always tough to judge the international horses, but she’s certainly a player.

#8 Auntie Joy – Finally got away from Catch a Glimpse last time out in the Grade 3 Regret and picked up a victory.  She had been beaten in the previous two races by the super filly, and now faces her again but perhaps at distance where she will excel.  This field is so tough that I still couldn’t rank her higher than this, but there is no doubt she is going to run a solid race.

#6 Harmonzie – Always seems to be in the middle of things, and today shouldn’t be much different.  We know she’s classy enough to run with these types, but not sure she can actually win against them.  To me she looks like that classic underneath horse that you can count on.  The only thing that could throw her in the win contenders section is if the distance is really to her liking.

Party Crashers

#10 Land Over Sea – This filly is known for her accomplishments on the dirt for sure, but I had forgotten that she actually did break her maiden on the turf.  I went back and watched the replay of that race, which is her only start on the turf, and she looked great in that race.  Perhaps this is what she has wanted to do all along, and we’ve already seen that she’s not quite good enough to compete with the top fillies on the dirt.  Might be worth rolling the dice on…

#5 Noble Beauty – No doubt she’s going to have to improve, but this lightly raced filly has every right to improve as she is starting to run well with the more experience she accumulates.  With Chad Brown on her side you have to like her chances, and she was competitive with Auntie Joy last time out.  Also, she gets Javier Castellano today which is a big time upgrade in most cases.  Just have a great feeling she’s going to run well at a nice price.

Throw Outs

#3 Pricedtoperfection – Hard for me to throw her out, but it’s time to face reality because I just don’t think she’s good enough to beat this super tough field.  Will have to run her best race by far today.

#9 Last Waltz – Came to the United States to run at the Breeders Cup which hasn’t worked out well quite yet, but she seems to be getting better with each race.  This looks to be too tough of a spot today though, so I’ll look elsewhere.

#1 Secure Access – From a class stand point she has no business in this race.  Doesn’t fit in with these in any way whatsoever.

#2 Decked Out – Certainly not a bad horse, but you are going to have to be extremely good to win this race.  Will need to make major improvements to make an impact.