2022 Kentucky Derby Rankings 3/31/2022: New Top Pick – For Now

Welcome to the 2022 Kentucky Derby Rankings! Each week leading up to the race, we will provide our Top 20 Kentucky Derby Prospects, as well as updates with the latest news on each horse.

Visit our Kentucky Derby page for the latest news, rankings, prep race schedules, the Kentucky Derby point standings, and much more!

1. Epicenter

Pros: Five solid races in a row; improving with each race as distances get longer; 102 Beyer in the Louisana Derby (G2); showed he can rate and still be effective

Cons: Upset in the Lecomte Stakes (G3) by a 28-1 shot.

Outlook: This horse just keeps improving with each race, and is currently the leader in the clubhouse in my eyes with two weeks to go. There is no doubt a horse like Messier could take over the #1 spot on April 9, but as of right now, this would be my pick to win the Kentucky Derby (G1). His ability to rate off the speed, take dirt in his face, and still kick on to an easy Louisiana Derby (G2) victory was very impressive.

2. Messier

Pros: Multiple graded stakes winner; 103 Beyer in recent victory; now eligible for points with Tim Yakteen

Cons: Lost to Slow Down Andy

Outlook: He put up the first “wow” performance of the year when he come home victories in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3) by 15 lengths. Plus, he is now trained by Tim Yakteen, at least on paper, which means he will be eligible to earn points in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) on April 9.

3. Forbidden Kingdom

Pros: Very impressive win in the San Vicente Stakes (G2); tremendous trainer; backed it up in the San Felipe Stakes (G2) going two turns

Cons: Hasn’t faced pace pressure yet

Outlook: He is now a major player after a dominant victory in the San Felipe Stakes (G2) going two turns. He hasn’t face much pressure on the front end yet; however, with his elite early speed it’s going to take a good horse to run with him early. We’ll see him in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) next.

4. White Abarrio

Pros: Only loss came to our second ranked horse; showed improvement in 2022 debut Holy Bull Stakes (G3) victory; Holy Bull runner-up came won the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2).

Cons: All wins have come at Gulfstream Park.

Outlook: This colt stamped himself as a player with a pretty easy and dominant win in the Holy Bull Stakes (G3) at Gulfstream Park. His early running style is what you need to win the Kentucky Derby (G1). We will see him this weekend in the Florida Derby (G1).

5. Smile Happy

Pros: Graded stakes victory over the Churchill Downs surface; horses he beat keep coming back and winning

Cons: Running style; recent loss in the Risen Star Stakes (G2)

Outlook: He suffered his first defeated in the Risen Star Stakes (G2) after what could be described as a questionable ride. Maybe he wouldn’t have beaten Epicenter on that day, but it would have been interesting to see what would have happened. He remains a player and should move forward off of that effort. The Blue Grass Stakes (G1) is next for him.

6. Simplification

Pros: Won despite a poor trip in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2); has a distance pedigree; showed versatility in last two starts

Cons: Has been inconsistent; struggles out of the gate will cost him in a large field

Outlook: It’s very difficult to win as a closer going 1 1/16 miles at Gulfstream Park, but Simplification did it in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2), after enduring yet another rough trip. That face he continues to show toughness is great; however, that trip in a 20-horse field will get dicey. Let’s see what he does this weekend in the Florida Derby (G1).

7. Classic Causeway

Pros: Two impressive victories to kick off his 3-year-old season; solid running style for the Kentucky Derby

Cons: Speed figures still low

Outlook: He put his early speed on display in a major way at Tampa Bay Downs in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3), going fast early and still having plenty of kick late. The Tampa Bay Derby (G2) was much the same, as he caught a flyer out of the gate, and never looked back. However, his speed figures don’t match up favorably with the other top horses in this crop, so there is still some improving to do on his part. He’ll move up in competition this weekend in the Florida Derby (G1).

8. Zozos

Pros: Improved again in his third start; running second to Epicenter is solid for his stakes debut

Cons: Lightly raced could lead to a tough trip in the Kentucky Derby (G1)

Outlook: Brad Cox looks to have a good developing horses here, who ran well to finish second in his stakes debut in the Louisiana Derby (G2). His early running style at least gives him a shot at making an impact in the Kentucky Derby (G1).

9. Morello

Pros: Perfect 3 for 3 record; improving with each race; speed figures are competitive with the top horses

Cons: Never raced around two turns; never races outside of Aqueduct

Outlook: Recent history has shown that the Aqueduct prep series has produced nothing, but this year looks like it could be different, with Morello showing great talent in his Gotham Stakes (G3) win. His Beyer figure matched Simplification’s Fountain of Youth win, and was just 2 points behind Forbidden Kingdom in the San Felipe. This guy is a player moving forward, but now must prove he can stretch out in distance.

10. Mo Donegal

Pros: Excellent pedigree; victory going long

Cons: Unimpressive speed figures; Remsen winner hasn’t done much in a long time on the Derby Trail; third in 2022 debut 

Outlook: Even though he was third in the Holy Bull Stakes (G3), that race was a little short for him, but should set him up well for his next start. He has a bit more talent than the other recent Remsen Stakes (G2) winners, so you need to take him seriously moving forward.

11. In Due Time

Pros: Impressive victory 2 starts back; solid second in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2)

Cons: Figures still a bit low; saved ground and still was not competitive with the winner.

Outlook: He’s thrown his hat into the the ring, and seems to be developing with each start. He still needs to do some improving, though, as he has a better trip than the Fountain of Youth winner but was not close to defeating him. We’ll see if he can close the gap this weekend in the Florida Derby (G1).

12. Zandon

Pros: Solid in three starts so far; should continue to improve

Cons: Running style; only one victory so far

Outlook: This horse has the look of one that should improve, especially after a solid thir in the Risen Star Stakes (G2). However, his running style is always going to make it tougher for him to win a race like the Kentucky Derby (G1), so we’ll see if he can be more tactical in his next start in the Blue Grass Stakes (G1).

13. Secret Oath

Pros: Extremely impressive in last three starts; hasn’t been challenge this year

Cons: Hasn’t faced much; the obvious problem: she’s a filly!

Outlook: It’s nice to see D. Wayne Lukas with a potential star again, even if is a filly! She has been dominant in all her starts this year, and now is officially pointing towards the Arkansas Derby (G1). Can the filly beat the boys? We’re about to find out what she’s made of this weekend.

14. Early Voting

Pros: Undefeated 2 for 2; win at 1 1/8 miles

Cons: Speed figures are low; no wins outside of Aqueduct

Outlook: His Withers Stakes (G3) victory was solid enough; however, he will have to step his game up when facing better competition. We’ll see him next weekend in the Wood Memorial (G2) at Aqueduct.

15. Crown Prince

Pros: Japan is dominating on a world stage

Cons: The UAE Derby winner has struggled in the Kentucky Derby (G1); his UAE Derby (G2) win looked slow visually

Outlook: He earned his shot by winning the UAE Derby (G2), but that race has not produced much as far as the Kentucky Derby (G1) goes. However, we’ll see what happens as the Japanese horses have been dominating as of late.

16. Pioneer of Medina

Pros: Consistent runner

Cons: Ran ok in both of his prep efforts at Fair Grounds but was never close to winning; speed figures are a cut below

Outlook: He’s earned his way into the Kentucky Derby (G1), but him making an impact would be a big surprise. He looks to be a cut below the top horses.

17. Cyberknife

Pros: Solid recent speed figure in victory; has shown a high talent level

Cons: Still very green; bad loss against stakes company; will get one more shot at a prep

Outlook: This guy has shown the ability, and finally put it all together with an ultra-impressive allowance victory at Fair Grounds. Now, can he hold it together mentally in a stakes race, and build off of that impressive effort? That’s the major question mark. We’ll find out this weekend in the Arkansas Derby (G1).

18. Un Ojo

Pros: Nice win in the Rebel Stakes (G2)

Cons: Speed figures are low; he’s faced questionable competition

Outlook: He’s in the Derby with a win in the Rebel Stakes (G2), while he was also second in the Withers Stakes (G3) two starts back. The competition level has been questionable, though, so we’ll see how he does against tougher company down the road. He runs this weekend in the Arkansas Derby (G1).

19. Ethereal Road

Pros: Continues to improve with each start

Cons: Speed figures are low; hasn’t faced much; lost the lead late in the Rebel Stakes (G2).

Outlook: There is no doubt this horse needs to keep improving, but he’ll get every chance to do so under D Wayne Lukas. He also should get better as the distances get longer, which will obviously be to his benefit. He’s set to run in the Blue Grass Stakes (G2) next.

20. Slow Down Andy

Pros: He was able to win the Sunland Derby (G3)

Cons: Sunland Derby (G3) win was ugly; was defeated easily against tougher in the Risen Star Stakes (G2)

Outlook: This one looks like an easy toss. He did “earn” his way into the race with an ugly Sunland Derby (G3) victory, but this horse has a long ways to go.