Parlay Party: NFL Divisional Weekend Parlay Picks

Oh man, it’s the best football weekend of the year and we are just flat out spoiled with four games that are both incredibly intriguing and competitive. All year, I’ve been giving out game by game picks, but this weekend, let’s shoot our shot with a fun little, all weekend long parlay! I’ll include some props I like as we go as well. Now let’s get it!

Bengals vs. Titans (-3.5) – Total 47.5

Joe Burrow has been incredible the last three weeks and really all season. Chase is absolutely electric on the outside. This Bengals teams is fun personified on the football field. This isn’t their week. Tennessee comes into this game as the rare nobody believes in us #1 seed who is as healthy as they have been all season. Henry’s return is huge and this will be the first time since early in the season the Titans have had Jones, Brown and Henry on the field. The Bengals will take shots down the field on this defense so they very well could score in this spot, but the Titans rush the passer well and should do enough on the defensive side of the ball to set up the offense and get the job done.

Parlay Leg – Titans -3.5

Props: AJ Brown Anytime TD +120, AJ Brown 2TDs +850

49ers vs. Packers (-5.5) – Total – 45

I love all the angles on this matchup. The 49ers have owned the Pack and Rodgers in the past including Jimmy G and the run game knocking off Rodgers in the NFC title game.  They are 3-0 straight up vs the Packers in the playoffs with Rodgers at QB. Injuries will be a big part of this. Green Bay is hoping to and likely to get back multiple pieces on their weaker unit, the defense, but Matt LaFleur came out and said they will not play the full game or be 100%. The 49ers lost Warner (LB) and Bosa (DE) in the wild card game. They are both trending to playing and both are very important here. Then there is Jimmy G who is battling a thumb and shoulder issue. When he beat the Packers in the NFC title game, he threw just 8 passes. If he’s allowed to throw just 8 passes and they win then the Packers coaching staff failed here.

I just do not see how either team pulls away in this spot. This game opened at 4.5 and should be closer to 3 in my opinion. This 49ers offense is much more explosive and Kyle Shannahan knows most of the Packers coaching staff inside and out. I’m very worried about the QB situation, Jimmy G over Rodgers, but the points are just too juicy to pass up.

Parlay Leg – 49ers +5.5

Props: 49ers ML +200, Mitchell over 80.5 Rushing Yards, Jennings Anytime TD +325, Dillon Anytime TD +160

Rams vs. Buccaneers (-3) – Total 48

This is just not a great spot for this Bucs team. They are banged up on the offensive side of the ball missing multiple weapons on the outside and at the RB position, but just as importantly, they have injuries on the offensive line. Tristan Wirfs and Ryan Jensen, Tampa’s top 2 lineman, both left the game last week. Jensen will start and play; Wirfs was in a walking boot all week and even if he goes, he will not be 100%. The combination of missing weapons and lineman spells trouble for Tom Brady who didn’t look comfortable vs. a worse pass rush and defense last week. Von Miller and Aaron Donald are going to wreck havoc on that side of the ball. 

It is also a great match up for the Rams offense. The Bucs D has the #1 blitz rate in the NFL at over 38% of drop backs. The Rams have some of the best man to man beaters on the outside with Cupp and Beckham. Stafford’s numbers are also the best when he is facing the blitz. 

Parlay Leg – Rams ML +125 and Over 48

Bills vs Chiefs (-1.5) – Total 54

Save the best for last here! This is an absolute banger. I have these two teams rated #1 and #2 left in the tournament with the Chiefs slightly over the Bills. If I played a side, it would be the Chiefs, but that isn’t where we are going here. Let’s roll with the Over. Buffalo is going to get their points here vs. a very aggressive Chiefs defense. Kansas City is much improved since these two teams faced earlier in this year and the Bills cornerbacks are, well, not good. They will be starting a 7^th round rookie.

Even with all that, let’s look at the game earlier in the year since that is the best case for the over. They scored 58 in that game, 38-20, but that includes a wild storm late in the first half, an hour delay at half and rain / wind the entire 2^nd half.  On top of that, there were over 80 years of Offensive penalties which are drive killers. Dive deeper into the drive by drive breakdown and you will find drives with 0 points that ended at the Buffalo 6, Buffalo 15 and Buffalo 32. 

Parlay Leg – Over 54

Props: I like Kelce Anytime TD and 2 TDs, Over McKinnon Receptions

The Parlay: Titans -3.5, 49ers +5.5, Rams +125, Rams/Bucs O48, Bills/Chiefs O54 – $100 to win $2893

Good luck this weekend!