Free Pick: Las Vegas 6-6 at Kansas City 8-4 12/12/21

This AFC West matchup feels like a last chance game for Las Vegas. They are two games behind the Chiefs in the division and trail four teams for a possible wild card spot. The Chiefs are on a roll, having won five straight games. They are winning with defense instead of their customary high-powered offense. The two teams met about a month ago in Vegas and Kansas City blew the Raiders out 41-14. Let’s see what Vegas is thinking.

TOTAL TEAM POINTS:

Las Vegas: 19 Total Team Points The Raiders are averaging 23 points and 379 total yards per game. They have struggled in the run game and that has put a ton of pressure on Derek Carr and the passing game. They are going up against a Kansas City defense that has had a remarkable turnaround in the last five games. They have held opponents to 11 points per game during their current winning streak. The Raiders have got to win this game. Isn’t 19 points a low total? I’m taking Las Vegas OVER 19 team points.

Kansas City: 29 Total Team Points The Chiefs continue to have high team point totals, even though, they have only scored 30 or more points in two of their last eight games. The Raiders defense has allowed over 29 points only twice all season. The safest bet in the NFL the past few weeks has been taking the under on the Chiefs. Why change now? I like Kansas City UNDER 29 points.

OVER/UNDER: 48 Total Combined Team Points This is one of those over/unders that could go either way. No bet for me.

POINT SPREAD: Kansas City is a 9.5-point favorite Obviously, Vegas still has a high regard for the Chiefs and their home field. They are always favored by a fairly large total, by NFL standards. Aaron likes Kansas City to cover and I think they might, but I’m not totally confident betting on it.

PAPA DUDES PICK: Kansas City UNDER 29 team points

AARON’S PICK: Kansas City -9.5