Pennsylvania Derby (Grade 2) Preview

Racing Dudes Win Pick: #4 Bayern

Racing Dudes Longshot Pick: #7 Tapiture

Analysis:

1. California Chrome (CA) – The champion returns today, and obviously he’s the one to beat.  The eyes of the horse racing world will be on this race, and you can bet he’ll be 1/5 by post time.  At those odds he’s worth a small play against which is way I’ve picked Bayern, but make no mistake his “A” game will win this race.

2. Candy Boy (KY) – His two post Kentucky Derby races have been pretty solid.  He hasn’t been able to find the winners circle in either of them, but he was beaten by a freak in the Los Alamitos Derby and he came within a nose of winning the West Virginia Derby.  Unfortunately the waters will not get any easier for him today.  Hitting the board may be his ceiling.

3. Protonico (KY) – He won the prep race for this one, so a win over the track could play to his advantage.  Obviously this is a much tougher spot, but Parx can sometimes be a quirking surface.  Still not giving him much hope…

4. Bayern (KY) – He’s the pick based on a few things: 1. His odds will be right. 2. He’s the controlling speed on a track that favors front runners on big race days. 3. He’s not coming off any sort of a layoff.  4. The small cutback in distance will help him.  All those reasons might be enough to turn the tables in his direction.

5. Noble Moon (VA) – I don’t think they really know what they want to do with this one.  Would love to see him entered in something he can win as a confidence booster.  This certainly isn’t the spot…I’ll be shocked if he makes an impact.

6. Classic Giacnroll (KY) – Second place finisher in the Smarty Jones showed that he doesn’t mind Parx, but his form also says he’s a cut below the best of this crop.  If things completely fall apart up front he MIGHT have a shot at the superfecta.

7. Tapiture (KY) – Dangerous horse and one you have to love if the price is similar to his morning line of 5-1.  Everyone will be betting California Chrome and Bayern, but most have kind of forgotten about Tapiture.  He was probably 10 lengths the best in the West Virginia Derby after over coming major adversity to win by a nose.  His best race gives him every chance to pull off the upset.

8. C J’s Awesome (KY) – This McPeek trained horse actually fits the mold of the type of horse the trainer usually pulls an upset with.  His early speed will be beneficiary at Parx, and we saw last time that a mile and one eighth will be ok for him.  Kind of a crazy long shot play…but you could do worse.