Belmont Derby Invitational (Grade 1)
The Pick: #4 Adelaide
The Longshot:#6 Dance With Fate
Race Analysis:
#1 Toast of New York – Definitely should be the favorite and could be a total freak. Only question mark is how well he will ship.
#2 Sheldon – In WAAAAY over his head.
#3 Bobby’s Kitten – He’s back to doing what he loves, now can he beat the big boys in a Grade 1? Toughest challenge of his career…
#4 Adelaide – Any horse O’Brien brings here is dangerous, especially one with this kind of talent.
#5 Flamboyant – Has ran decent in two ungraded stakes here in the states, but this is a whole other ball game.
#6 Dance With Fate – This is what his trainer wanted to do with him all along: Run on turf! Think he has a monster chance today.
#7 Gailo Chop – Winner of five races in seven tries overseas…need we say more? Serious contender.
#8 Pornichet – Another European invaded, although this one doesn’t have as strong of a resume as the others. However, still very dangerous
#9 Mr. Speaker – In a normal U.S. turf stakes field he’d have a big shot…today maybe not so much.
#10 Global View – He’s bred for races like this, but might not be good enough for this tough spot. Will take his best effort.
#11 Gala Award – Has been great on the turf, but this is definitely a major step up. Not sure he’s ready to handle it, but wouldn’t be a total shock.
Belmont Oaks Invitational (Grade 1)
The Pick:#7 Xcellence
The Longshot:#3 My Conquestadory
Race Analysis:
#1 Goldy Espony – As always European shippers are dangerous, and she’s in the right hands to make a huge impact in this race.
#2 Room Service – Back to back Grade 1 winner could be America’s best hope in this one.
#3 My Conquestadory – Not at all concerned with her second place effort in her return to the races. Think that prep set her up nicely for this one.
#4 Summer Solo – She’s a perfect three for three, but this is a hell of a spot for her first try against stakes company.
#5 Flying Jib – Has won three straight races overseas…could be a beast.
#6 Rosalind – Might fit into this race fairly well, although I don’t think she’s fast enough to win. Maybe gets a piece of it with a top effort.
#7 Xcellence – Ran third two straight times against tough fields…this might actually be a class drop for her which makes her the most likely to win in my opinion.
#8 Wonderfully – Maybe the only Euro shipper of the day that doesn’t look to be good enough.
#9 Minorette – Came to the U.S. with a light resume and hasn’t done much since getting here. Looks overmatched.
#10 Recepta – Nice horse…tough spot
#11 Sea Queen – Winner of two in row is heading in the right direction. With another improvement she could end up making some noise.
Suburban Handicap (Grade 2)
The Pick:#5 Last Gunfighter
The Longshot:#10 Mylute
Race Analysis:
#1 Micromanage – After an up and down 2013, this horse is coming into his own this year. Wouldn’t be shocking at all to see him win.
#2 Ever Rider – Always runs solid races, just usually falls a bit short.
#3 Zivo – Great test for a New York bred that doesn’t know how to lose. His best effort might be good enough here.
#4 Norumbega – Won the mile and a half Brooklyn last time out, so we know distance won’t be an issue. Could just be a marathon specialist though.
#5 Last Gunfighter – Quietly goes about his business in a workman like effort. With no true “super stars” in the field I think he grinds out a victory.
#6 Romansh – Solid effort in the Met Mile against way tougher than he’ll face today. Has every chance to win.
#7 Prayer for Relief – Can sometimes jump up and run a surprising race…older horse just keeps on bringing it.
#8 Stormin Monarcho – Giant allowance wins at Delaware, but the waters get deeper today.
#9 Vyjack – Why run him 10 furlongs?? Don’t understand why he’s running in this spot.
#10 Mylute – He’s struggling to recapture his three year old form, but his fourth place Stephen Foster effort might be better than it looked.
#11 Moreno – Your guess is as good as mine…
Belmont Sprint Championship Stakes (Grade 3)
The Pick:#2 Central Banker
The Longshot:#7 Salutos Amigos
Race Analysis:
#1 Declan’s Warrior – The distance looks right for him, but is he good enough? Having trouble finding his form in 2014.
#2 Central Banker – If he repeats his Churchill Downs Stakes effort he’s clearly the best.
#3 Clearly Now – Always seems to be close to breaking through with a big win, but just can’t get there. Play underneath.
#4 Moonlight Song – Had been cleaning up in smaller races, but this class jump is just too much for him.
#5 Dads Caps – Pulled off the upset two races back in the Carter, but struggled in the True North next time out. Think he runs better here, but not expecting win.
#6 Mezzano – Has been running at the smaller venues lately, but his best race gives him a shot to hit the board.
#7 Salutos Amigos – Since the trainer switch this one has ran extremely well. Was third in the True North last time out, but should improve off that effort.
#8 Big Screen – Odd spot for a horse that made his 2014 debut on turf. He can dirt too…but not at this level.
#9 Palace – Winner of the True North looks for a nice double here, but is seven furlongs a touch long? His past performances suggests it might be.
Dwyer Stakes (Grade 3)
The Pick:#5 Tiz Dark
The Longshot:#3 Ulanbator
Race Analysis:
#1 Kid Cruz – Trying graded stakes company again, and this is a much easier spot than his last try. Should have every chance to win.
#2 Spot – Had a big win in the Swale, but not much since. Stretching out again here…not sure if that’s the best thing.
#3 Ulanbator – Ran an impressive second to Tapiture last time out, and this race doesn’t look to be all that tough.
#4 Captain Serious – Has won three straight races in a row, but they’ve been against stakes bred company…is he ready for a big class test?
#5 Tiz Dark – Huge Belmont maiden winner last time out, think he wheels back here and makes it two in a row.
#6 Gaining Ground – Was rolling along pretty good before getting beaten badly in the Calder Derby. Odd place for him to show up…
