Welcome to the 2022 Kentucky Derby Rankings! Each week leading up to the race, we will provide our Top 20 Kentucky Derby Prospects, as well as updates with the latest news on each horse.
You can also visit our Kentucky Derby page for loads of information, including the latest news, rankings, prep race schedules, the Kentucky Derby point standings, and much more!
Let’s take a look at our latest list leading up to this weekend’s Southwest Stakes (G3) at Oaklawn Park:
1. Smile Happy
Pros: Perfect record; graded stakes victory over the Churchill Downs surface
Cons: Speed figures still a bit low; not sure what he’s faced yet
Outlook: His Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) victory was pretty impressive. He showed a burst of speed late in both starts so far. We’ll seem in the Risen Star Stakes (G2) at Fair Grounds for his 2022 debut.
2. Corniche
Pros: Undefeated; Bob Baffert; Champion Juvenile
Cons: Speed figures are low; competition he’s faced is sketchy
Outlook: He’ll be the champion 2-year-old with ease while being the clear Kentucky Derby favorite heading into 2022. However, the level of competition that he has faced is still a little questionable.
3. Emmanuel
Pros: Solid debut effort at Gulfstream Park; followed up with an easy Tampa Bay allowance victory
Cons: Speed figure aren’t flashy; still no stakes experience
Outlook: This horse has looked ultra-impressive in both of his starts, and has the look of being Todd Pletcher’s best horse. Stakes company will definitely be next.
4. Epicenter
Pros: Three solid races in a row; has the early speed needed to be in position
Cons: Recent loss to a 28/1 shot in the Lecomte Stakes (G3)
Outlook: There is still a lot to like about this Steve Asmussen runner, despite the recent runner-up effort in the Lecomte Stakes (G3). He did the dirty work in that one, and should improve as the distances get longer.
5. Forbidden Kingdom
Pros: Very impressive win in the San Vicente Stakes (G2); tremendous trainer
Cons: Unproven around two turns
Outlook: There is no doubt this horse took a major step forward in his San Vicente Stakes (G2) victory. Now, he must show he can do that around two turns in his next challenge, which will likely be the San Felipe Stakes (G2).
6. Newgrange
Pros: Three straight wins; speed figures are close to what the top group has earned
Cons: Didn’t take a step forward in the Southwest Stakes (G3)
Outlook: There is nothing wrong with being three for three, but he didn’t look flashy in the Southwest Stakes (G3), even though it was a gritty win. He did not seem to like that track at all, which played a factor.
7. Jack Christopher
Pros: Most talented horse in the crop so far
Cons: Sprinter pedigree; injured before the Breeders’ Cup
Outlook: After watching several replays, he looks to be the most talented, but distance is a major question mark. He’ll be behind schedule a bit as well with an injury, which is an increasing concern with each passing week.
8. Slow Down Andy
Pros: Improved greatly in his last start; distance pedigree
Cons: Other than 1 race, he’s looked extremely average
Outlook: If his Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) win wasn’t a fluke and he can build off of that effort, then he will be a factor.
9. Mo Donegal
Pros: Excellent pedigree; victory going long
Cons: Unimpressive speed figures; Remsen winner hasn’t done much in a long time on the Derby Trail.
Outlook: His Remsen Stakes (G2) win was workman-like, and while that race hasn’t produced much on the Derby Trail, it was still a solid win.
10. American Icon
Pros: Impressive debut victory, Todd Pletcher
Cons: Lack of experience, no races around two turns yet
Outlook: He was awesome on debut, but how will he do when he moves up the ladder? That will be the big question.
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11. Messier
Pros: Stakes winner; Bob Baffert
Cons: Recent loss not a good look
Outlook: Losing as the heavy favorite is never a good thing, so we’ll see if he can bounce back from a runner-up effort in the Los Alamitos Derby (G2).
12. Rattle N Roll
Pros: Impressive victories going two turns; Grade 1 winner
Cons: An injury has him behind schedule
Outlook: He has the talent, but the key will be how quickly he can get healthy and get back on the track.
13. Make It Big
Pros: Undefeated in three starts, all victories were decisive
Cons: Class remains a question mark
Outlook: He passed his first test with flying colors, shipping to Remington Park and winning the Springboard Mile Stakes. He earned an 84 Beyer for the victory, which is solid for that time of year.
14. Call Me Midnight
Pros: Solid victory in the Lecomte Stakes (G3); Solid trainer
Cons: Several losses on the resume; running style
Outlook: He threw his name into the hat with an impressive victory in the Lecomte Stakes (G3); however, his running style of coming from behind will always leave him with a lot to do.
15. Zandon
Pros: Solid in both of his starts so far; should improve
Cons: Low speed figures
Outlook: His runner-up effort in the Remsen Stakes (G2) was impressive considering it was his first time going two turns. If he can improve, he might be one that can rise up the rankings.
16. Pappacap
Pros: Consistent runner; Grade 2 winner
Cons: Four clear losses when running against solid competition
Outlook: He seems like the type that will hit the board in a lot of races, but might not be good enough to win one of the big ones. Until proven otherwise, that is how we’re going to label him.
17. Simplification
Pros: Earned solid speed figure in recent win; has a distance pedigree
Cons: Has been inconsistent; hasn’t faced much yet
Outlook: His impressive Mucho Macho Man Stakes victory puts him on the map; however, he must prove he can do it against better horses and around two turns.
18. Chasing Time
Pros: Impressive win going two turns; solid pedigree
Cons: Speed figures are still low
Outlook: He made a name for himself with an impressive win against allowance runners at Oaklawn Park. Now, he will likely go to the Rebel Stakes (G2), where he will have to prove he can do it against tougher competition.
19. Pinehurst
Pros: Only one loss; showed improvement in 2022 debut despite a loss
Cons: Two-turns still a major question mark.
Outlook: Even though he lost, his runner-up effort in the San Vicente Stakes (G2) was encouraging. Now, we need to see him do it going two-turns.
20. Doppelganger
Pros: Solid debut effort at Los Alamitos
Cons: Off the board finish against stakes horses
Outlook: This horse looked pretty professional on debut, sitting a little off the pace, and then pouncing late for an easy debut victory. However, he didn’t look nearly as good in the San Vicente Stakes (G2), but that race could have been a little short for him. He’s still a player until we see him around two-turns.
