2016 Preakness Pace Profile & Trends

Conclusion: Preakness Pace Profile & Trends

Bringing together all of this information in a clear prediction is a daunting task.  Here’s a summary of what the trends tell us for this year’s Preakness:

• Trend #1: Horses with early speed have won the Preakness lately and Nyquist is the best bet to be the winner from this group.

• Trend #2: Closers and mid-pack horses have hit the board lately and Exaggerator leads this group as the most likely horse to be flying late.

• Trend #3: Longshots have hit the superfecta in the past 5 years and there are an abundance of options in this year’s race.

• Trend #4: Horses showing high late pace figures in their last race have been successful in the Preakness at long prices. A good percentage of these horses have come out of races other than the Kentucky Derby. Uncle Lino and Awesome Speed look like the two best longshots to use in this year’s Preakness based on these trends.

With big exotic pay-offs possible, hope isn’t lost on the Preakness, even though the most likely winner may be the favorite.

The key to the making money on the Preakness is not trying to beat the favorite and Kentucky Derby winner (this year Nyquist), but trying to fill out exotics plays with the right longshots underneath and “pound” these wagers multiple times. Another key is to not spread too much at the bottom of these plays and have conviction on who you think can round out the exacta, trifecta and superfecta. If you spread too much with the favorite on top, you may start betting too much on too many combinations and even if you hit, your overall profit will be small.

The best approach to this year’s Preakness from a wagering standpoint is to use Nyquist and Exaggerator in the top two spots and use a couple key longshots underneath multiple times.  Nyquist and Exaggerator are the two stand-outs in this crop right now and both have shown strong performances on off-tracks if it rains on Preakness day.

The top two longshots I will focus on will be Uncle Lino and Cherry Wine.  Based on the Trend #4 analysis above, Uncle Lino showed great late pace in the California Chrome Stakes and may be able to hold on for a piece like he did to get third in the classy Santa Anita Derby in the slop after pressing an extremely hot pace.

Cherry Wine also has an affinity for the slop and has a good chance to be closing late into the fast early fractions to hit the board.  Cherry Wine has also kept good class in his last two races in the Rebel and Bluegrass Stakes.  Even though his late pace numbers do not meet the criteria in Trend #4 above, trainer Dale Romans has a history of hitting the board in Triple Crown races and Cherry Wine is the type of young horse improving at the right time coming in third off a layoff looking primed to run the best race of his career.

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