2016 Preakness Pace Profile & Trends

Trend #3: Longshots Have Filled Out Exotics

Of the 20 horses that have hit the superfecta in the past 5 years, nine of them have gone off over 10/1 odds at post time.  The favorite or second choice has won the Preakness in 3 of these 5 years, but even in those years (2012, 2014 & 2015) the exotic payouts have been decent, as shown in the table below:

• In 2012, the $1 Superfecta was spiced up to $424 when Zetterholm got 4^th, even though three of the top four choices hit the board.
• Last year was a rare case where the big favorite American Pharoah won and the exotics still paid off huge with 28/1 longshot Tale of Verve in second and 12/1 Divining Rod in third.

WHAT TREND #3 MEANS FOR 2016 PREAKNESS?

Focussing on the morning line odds below, there are an abundance of longshot options to choose from to fill out exotics:

• A total of seven of the eleven horses entered have morning line odds of 20/1 or higher.
• With Nyquist at 3/5 odds and Exaggerator at 3/1, the win prices for these longshots most likely will increase even higher just based on simple math.
• Note: The win odds should only be used as a guide to what horses may pay underneath in the exotics. Exacta probable pay-offs can also be used as a gauge.

With the abundance of longshot options available it is difficult to focus on a few key horses, but the next trend will help trim down the longshot possibilities by using late pace.