2016 Preakness Pace Profile & Trends

Trend #2: Mid-Pack Horses & Closers Have Hit the Board

Even though the evidence of speed winning the Preakness most recently seems overwhelming, this does not mean that closers cannot have success in the race.

Expanding the table in Trend #1 above to include the horses that hit the superfecta (top 4 finishers) in the past 5 years shows some very interesting trends:

• A total of 10 of the 15 horses to finish 2^nd through 4^th in the past five Preakness Stakes were more than 5½ lengths off the lead at the ½ mile point in the race.
• Overall the 15 horses to finished 2^nd through 4^th in these races were an average 7 lengths off the lead at the ½ mile point in the race.
• A total of 6 of these 15 horses came into the Preakness denoted as Brisnet “S” Closer run styles.

This data shows the trend that even though the Preakness winner of the past few years has needed to be on or near the lead, the horses that have filled out the bottom of exotic wagers can be as far back as 17½ lengths like longshot Tale of Verve in last year’s Preakness.

WHAT TREND #2 MEANS FOR 2016 PREAKNESS?

With the abundance of speed entered in the Preakness this year, undoubtedly some of the early speed horses will be tiring at the longer 1 & 3/16 mile distance and set it up for mid-pack horses and closers to at least hit the board.

Exaggerator (P) has changed his running style to be more off the pace and make one big run late like he did to get second in the Kentucky Derby.  Most likely, Exaggerator will be at the back end of the mid-pack horses and in front of the deep closers in the Preakness. Desormeaux will time his run and Exaggerator’s fearless nature to go in between horses will undoubtedly allow him to get his closing kick in earlier than the late closers.  Exaggerator should have no issues as a closer from the #5 post, unless the horse to his outside post #6 (Lani) breaks awkwardly into him.

It’s anybody’s guess what Lani (N/A) will do from the gate. He broke badly in both the UAE Derby and the Kentucky Derby, so it has put him further back in the field than he may naturally want to be. What he has shown in both races and in his Japanese races is that he has late kick, so he will most likely be somewhere near the back of the field looking for that one big move.

Both Cherry Wine (S0) and Fellowship (S0) have closed late to hit the board in some of the biggest Kentucky Derby prep races. Of the 12 Derby preps giving 50 or 100 points to the winner in the United States run on dirt, Cherry Wine & Fellowship combined to close in 4 of them (33%) to get into the trifecta or superfecta.  Cherry Wine should be able to save ground throughout from his #1 post. Fellowship should tuck in early at the back of the field from his outside #10 post looking for one big move late.