2015 Kentucky Derby Preview

Party Crashers

#6 Mubtaahij (IRE) – This could be Dubai’s best chance to win the Kentucky Derby! Dominated the UAE Derby with style which shows he belongs with this group, but obviously the “Dubai Curse” hangs over this one like a dark cloud. Can he finally prove that a horse can handle the long ship overseas and run well? We’ll see.

#10 Firing Line (KY) – It’s hard to know exactly what this horse can be or what he can do. Has been beaten by Dortmund twice in a row, but went to Sunland Park for his final prep and absolutely dominated in the Sunland Derby. Obviously the field was weak in that race, but you can’t fault how good he looked. Maybe he’s improved since that last match up with the big chestnut at Santa Anita. A forgotten horse that could sneak up on people.

#19 Upstart (NY) – Consistency has been his game all winter at Gulfstream Park, and really he won two of three prep races but was DQ’d out of the Fountain of Youth. He might be a small cut below the top notch horses, but his running style is scary. Not expecting the distance to be any problem for him either. Not the best post but worth a shot.

Throw Outs

#1 Ocho Ocho Ocho (KY) – Should definitely be out front now with this draw, but looks like a horse that really needs to shorten up in distance. The rail draw is just a terrible for him because his hand is forced now. Not good.

#2 Carpe Diem (KY) – Was certainly going to be one of the top picks for me, but the post position really has me worried. This is one of the main contenders that I thought might be just a small step behind the big boys in this one so the post made it easier for me to put him in this spot.

#3 Materiality (KY) – Tough draw for a horse with very little experience. I understand that they were probably going to send him to the lead anyway, but from this post he’ll get quite an education compared to if he would have drawn outside horses. Obviously the curse of Apollo looms large, but the post may have hurt him even more.

#4 Tencendur (NY) – Some experts kind of like him, but I can’t get there. May have ran the race of his life last time out in the Wood Memorial, but don’t think he can do it again. Almost was ready to call him an exotic play but the post has me worried.

#9 Bolo (KY) – Most likely a really good turf horse that just isn’t quite as good on the dirt. I know some turf horses have recently done well in the Kentucky Derby, but this one’s dirt races at Santa Anita have me worried. Too much of a risk.

#11 Stanford (KY) – Somewhat scary on the front end but will the pace be too much for him. Considering the draw, he might be Pletcher’s best shot to win this race and his pattern actually suggests he’ll run pretty well. Still a stretch for me to see him doing well.

#13 Itsaknockout (KY) – I’ve called him the slowest horse in the field, and I’ll stick by that statement. Most likely horse to finish last in my opinion, but at least he’ll have a cool Mayweather/Pacquiao blanket when he walks in.

What a marketing coup for Itsaknockout. This is him with cooler promoting fight. pic.twitter.com/5oL9vAqDTm

— Jay Privman (@jayprivman) April 24, 2015

#16 War Story (KY) – Maybe he’s a crazy Louisiana horse that has a shot just like Commanding Curve and Golden Soul, but it’s getting harder and harder to see it. He’s the reason why you play an ALL in your exotics at some point, but you can’t logically say he has a shot.

#17 Mr. Z (KY) – We love him, but boy he just doesn’t look good in the mornings leading up to this race. His trainer D. Wayne Lukas says, “We don’t get paid to look good at 8:30 in the morning”, but we would have at least liked to see a little spunk from this well traveled horse. Hoping for a better outcome, but not looking good.