2014 Kentucky Oaks Preview

Likely Winners

#13 Untapable (KY) – I’m not going to let this outside draw bring my down. She’s the best filly in this race by far, and is also one of the fastest horses in the entire three year old crop. However, at a short price from this post I can understand why some would be having major doubts at taking her at short odds. The thirteen hole is not ideal, but her running style is well suited to adapt to an outside post position compared to one on the rail. As long as Rosie can keep her from going 8-wide into the first turn, I think she’ll be just fine.

#11 My Miss Sophia (KY) – For most of the winter/spring I felt this was a one horse race, but the late presence of My Miss Sophia has me believing she has what it takes to unseat Untapable. Her Gulfstream maiden score was big, but I was very relieved when she romped at Aqueduct in the Gazelle Stakes proving that she wasn’t just another Gulfstream specialist. Her morning line of 8-1 is something you probably won’t get, but her odds will certainly be better than Untapable so I say all systems are go to bet her in any straight wagers you may have.

#7 Fashion Plate (KY) – Is it just or me or is this horse flying way to low under the radar for a horse that has won three in a row and never been defeated on dirt? I was ready to put her in the “Exotic Play” category, but after continuing to study her past performances I almost picked her to win the whole thing. Maybe the competition wasn’t that great out in California, but was it really very good anywhere this year for fillies? I think she’s in with a big shot and the price will be right.

Exotic Plays

#2 Ria Antonia (KY) – Quite honestly I was never high on this horse even after her Breeders Cup Juvenile win, but the set up of this race gives her a chance to grab a piece of it as the pace will be swift. She’s already proven she was no match for Untapable, and when returning to the track she loved at Santa Anita she still couldn’t manage to win. Third or fourth is probably the best she can do.

#4 Rosalind (KY) – It kind of feels like this one is getting good at the right time. After a solid two year old campaign she started off slow with a third place effort at Gulfstream in an allowance race, and then really impressed last time out by winning the Ashland at Keeneland. Even though that race was on synthetic, her dirt races haven’t been bad. With the right kind of trip she could definitely pull off an upset.

Party Crashers

#9 Unbridled Forever (KY) – We clearly didn’t see her best effort last time out in the Fair Grounds Oaks, but I believe if she shows up here with her “A” game she can make a lot of noise. She’s has an all important win over the Churchill Downs surface, and trainer Dallas Stewart has been known to have his horse ready for the big races like this one. With a bounce back effort she could be tough.

#12 Got Lucky (KY) – After what happened last year can you really ever label another Pletcher horse as a “throw-out?” How about three weeks ago when the “other Pletcher horse” won the Arkansas Derby at 41-1! She’s been clearly defeated by the top two horses in here, but remember Princess of Sylmar was clearly defeated by Close Hatches last year before she was able to take home the Kentucky Oaks. Leave her off your tickets at your own risk…

Throw-Outs

#1 Please Explain (KY) – She’s a good candidate for finishing last in my opinion. After romping at Tampa Bay, Please Explain was beaten soundly at Oaklawn twice against horses that weren’t all that good. Will have to take a major step up to compete.

#3 Sugar Shock (KY) – Hard to believe I’m tossing the winner of the Fantasy Stakes, but I have to do it. Although Oaklawn is our home track and we’ll be rooting for her; it just doesn’t look like she has enough ability to beat this group. Plus her front running style will be severely challenged in this one as the pace should be hot.

#5 Thank You Marylou (VA) – Got into the race with some late defections, and looks to be a bit overmatched by this group. However, the upside potential is there so out of all of these that I’m throwing out she might be the one that jumps up and makes a small impact on the race.

#8 Aurelia’s Belle (KY) – Was competitive in Florida but never quite good enough to win, and it looked like the class drop/surface change to Turfway Park suited her pretty well. She’s not at Turfway in this one though so this one could have a long day.

#6 Kiss Moon (KY) – This is another one of my Oaklawn gals that I’m throwing out. She had every chance in the world to win the Fantasy Stakes, but never could quite pass Sugar Shock in the stretch. With the race set up of this one she might turn the tables on Sugar Shock, but that won’t be enough to make an impact against this group.

#10 Empress of Midway (KY) – She’s lightly race so there is a slight chance she could be progressing and improve dramatically here, but there just isn’t enough on paper to make you like her in this tough spot.