Kentucky Derby Betting: Finding the Value

If you like War Story then you have to like the horse that beat him which is International Star. He’s won three in a row leading up to the race, but will still most likely be 20-1. Far Right is another horse that fits the “make one run” theory that should pass tired horses. His pedigree might say he doesn’t want a mile and quarter, but he looked like he has some gas left in the tank in the Arkansas Derby. Both of those horses fit the bill of logical contenders, but remember logic is being tossed aside in this race. Sure these two plus El Kabeir could come running late, but nobody would be totally shocked. Lets go back to the illogical…

How about Danzig Moon? Relatively unknown horse has been dominated by Carpe Diem the last two times. However, in the Bluegrass Stakes, this horse ran a sneaky good second. He somewhat closed the margin on Carpe Diem, and he looks like he’ll love an extra furlong. The son of Malibu Moon has distance pedigree on both the top and bottom side. Also, lets look at his running lines compared to that of the three prior horses above. The races were in Florida and Kentucky instead of Louisiana, but the late running “grab a piece of it” style was the same:

Keeneland	4/4/2015	10	Toyota Blue Grass Stakes – Gr. 1	2
Tampa Bay	3/7/2015	11	Tampa Bay Derby – Gr. 2	4

 
So I’ve given you logical and illogical…now lets just go f’ing crazy. ONE more horse to mention…MR. Z! I know your reaction: YOU HAVE TO BE KIDDING ME! No, I’m actually not and here is why. This horse will not quit. He definitely is crazy, and he has no chance to win, but hitting the board is not out of the question. One thing has become very clear to me with him and that’s the fact that he really likes to run with other horses. He waits on horses to come up next to him down the stretch, and then once they get there he engages with them and runs right with them. This could actually be a good thing when it comes to hitting the board in this race. He’ll be within striking distance towards the end and will find another horse to stick with down the stretch. Don’t be surprised if this horse is involved in a photo for fourth…and also don’t ever count out D. Wayne Lukas. He’s pulled off bigger miracles than this…

Of course all of these horses could fail miserably, but in this race you have to take some shots. American Pharoah is the horse we love and will use on top (article coming tomorrow), but even if he wins the exotics could still pay large. We just need that one value colt to come in and make things crazy. So when ‘capping this years Kentucky Derby remember this. It’s important to find the winner, but it’s of equal importance to find that value horse that could change your life.