Green Bay Packers
Sunday, November 22, 2020 at 4:25pm EST
Lucas Oil Stadium , Indianapolis
The Green Bay Packers travel to Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana, to battle the Indianapolis Colts at 4:25 p.m. Eastern Standard Time Sunday afternoon. The Packers will seek to win their third straight contest after taking out the Jacksonville Jaguars at home by a 24-20 score last weekend. Nonetheless, the Packers failed to cover the spread in their second straight home game as they were 13.5 point favorites for the contest. The Colts enter this contest with a healthy amount of momentum as well as they have won three of their last four contests, including a 34-17 win over the Tennessee Titans on the road in their last matchup. It should be mentioned, nonetheless, that while Indianapolis was able to cover the spread as one point favorites versus the Titans, the team is 2 - 3 ATS in their last five games, overall.
These teams have not played against each other since 2016, when the Colts picked up a 31-26 win while also covering as 7.5 point underdogs .
The public has really shown tons of support for Indianapolis as the line opened at 2.5 points in favor of the Packers; However, the line has since moved in favor of the Colts as the home team is now favored by 1.5 points. On the other hand, the total stands at 51.5 points, which is up from 49 points at the opening.
Packers clicking on all cylindersThe Green Bay Packers are currently riding high as they are not only winners of two straight games, but have put themselves up a comfortable two and a half games ahead of the Chicago Bears for first place in the NFC North division. Furthermore, the road ahead for the Packers is very favorable as they face sub-500 teams in six of their last eight games of 2020. However, the Packers will certainly be looking forward to this contest as it will pit one of the best offenses in the league versus one of the best defenses in the NFL.
Aaron Rodgers has been sensational all year in completing 68% of his passes for over 2,500 yards while throwing 26 touchdown passes alongside three interceptions. Most importantly, Rodgers has thrown for over 300 yards in each of the last two games while posting a completion percentage of over 75% during this time. Furthermore, Rodgers has posted six touchdown passes alongside just one interception. Receiver Davante Adams has certainly been the main recipient of his generosity as he has racked up 18 catches in the last two games for Green Bay for over 230 yards along with two touchdown passes. Important to note that Adams has a total of seven touchdown passes in the last four games.
Enough is enough.— Green Bay Packers (@packers) June 4, 2020
It's time for change. https://t.co/AS7wP9qz2x
Rodgers possesses a bevy of targets in wide receiver Allen Lazard along with tight end Robert Tonyan, who has five touchdown passes on the season; However, Tanyon is questionable with an ankle injury while both Lazard and Adams have been dealing with abdominal and toe injuries; Yet each are expected to suit up. Running back Aaron Jones also has two TD catches on the season, however, has fared best in the backfield in racking up 493 yards for a 4.8 per yard average along with posting five touchdowns in 2020. It should be mentioned, however, that Jones is coming off back-to-back less than stellar performances in accumulating 28 rushes for only 104 yards while averaging three yards per carry during this time.
Regardless, expect for the Colts defense to be up to the challenge as they are not only ranked first in the league in allowing just 290 total yards per game, but are ranked within the top three in passing and rushing yards allowed while giving up just under 20 points per game. Furthermore, the Colts defense has recorded 14 turnovers this season, ranking them 10th.
Green Bay has been middle-of-the-road on the defensive side of the ball this season as they are allowing 25 points per game , including 110 yards on the ground alongside 225 yards in the air. And while the unit has allowed less than 20 points per game in their last two outings, it can be said that the Packers’ defense rates as subpar as it relates to forcing turnovers as they possess only seven on the year, ranking them 30th in the NFL. The unit may be short-handed for this contest as linebacker Chris Barnes has already been ruled out with a calf injury while defensive lineman Montravius Adams is questionable with a toe injury.
Green Bay's defensive secondary may also be missing some key components as cornerback Jaire Alexander is questionable with a concussion while Will Redmond is questionable with a shoulder injury. In addition to this, cornerback Kevin King is already out indefinitely with a quadricep injury. Nonetheless, the Green Bay defense has really done well for itself on the road in the last two outings as they are giving up just under 19 points per game during this time, thus assisting the team in going 2-0 against the spread.
Colts rebound from loss to RavensAside from their most recent home loss to the Baltimore Ravens November 8th, the Indianapolis Colts have picked up victories in three of their last four home games. However, it is important to note that the team has not covered in their last two home games, overall.
It cannot be ignored, however, that the Colts’ have been clicking on both sides of the ball in their last four games as well as they have not only picked up wins in three of their last four matchups, but Philip Rivers and company have dominated their opponents in posting 30 or more points in three of those contests. In fact, the offense is coming off of a huge day versus a weak Tennessee Titans defense as Philip Rivers posted 308 yards along with a TD while going 29-39 from the pocket , only his third 300-plus yard passing night in 2020.
Rivers targeted Receiver Michael Pittman Jr. a total of eight times as he ended the game with seven receptions for 101 yards to lead the receiving corps for the Colts. Furthermore, TY Hilton along with Zach Pascal had a combined eight catches for 73 yards while running back Nahyeim Hines not only rushed 12 times for 70 yards while having a touchdown run, but had five receptions for 45 yards and a TD as well. In all, Indianapolis posted just over 420 total yards for the game while also dominating the time of possession slightly in holding the ball for over 31 minutes.
E.J. Speed T.J. Carrie— Indianapolis Colts (@Colts) November 19, 2020
The offense will certainly want to hold the football as much as possible in this matchup to keep the rock away from a Green Bay offense that can score in bunches in a very short amount of time. However, how the Colts are able to control the line of scrimmage will certainly dictate if this can be accomplished as Indianapolis’ rushing attack has been a bit subpar in posting just 106 yards per contest in 2020. Nonetheless, running back Jonathan Taylor leads the pack in the backfield as he has racked up 631 yards along with four touchdowns this season while averaging just under four yards per carry. However, Taylor has only 121 yards rushing on 36 attempts along with one touchdown in the Colts last four games, however.
Important to know that tight end Mo Allie-Cox may miss this game due to a knee injury while Jack Doyle has been under concussion protocol, yet, is likely to start in this contest.
Again, the Colts’ defensive unit enters this contest ranked as one of the best defenses in the NFL. However, it should be noted that Indianapolis may have to take the field without some key components of their own as safety Julian Blackmon along with Khari Willis, along with cornerback Kenny Moore II, are each questionable with knee and rib injuries. If these individuals are not able to go, the defensive line along with linebacking corps must create enough pressure on Rodgers in order to speed up his decision making in the pocket simply to take pressure off of their secondary. Though four years ago, Rodgers went 26 - 43 versus Indianapolis for 297 yards, three touchdown passes, along with an interception in addition to rushing six times for 43 yards.
Stats & Trends
- Underdog is 4 - 1 ATS in the last 5 meetings vs Packers and Colts
- Packers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games on field turf
- Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games
- Packers are 8-3 ATS versus a team with a winning record
- Favorite is 1 - 4 ATS in the last 5 meetings versus Packers and Colts
- Colts are 2 - 3 ATS in last 5 games
I have to say that I like the Packers in this position with the plus points. Again, Green Bay not only enters this game with one of the best offenses in the league, as stated earlier, but, may be going against a wounded defensive secondary for the Colts in this matchup. And while I certainly expect Philip Rivers and company to keep Indianapolis in this contest with some big plays, with the way in which Rodgers and the passing attack has performed the past two weeks leads me to believe that the road team will certainly take advantage of opportunities downfield versus what may indeed be a short-handed secondary.
Also, combine this with the fact that Green Bay has been stellar against the spread versus teams with winning records, and I certainly expect the Packers to keep this game within reach while possibly having a huge opportunity to win outright.