We have an AFC North matchup for Sunday when the 4-2 Cleveland Browns meets the 1-4-1 Cincinnati Bengals for the second time this season. Cleveland won their first meeting in Cleveland by a score of 35-30 and failed to cover a -6.5 point spread as favorites. Can the Bengals beat their in-state rival this Sunday?
Browns Buried By PittsburghCleveland traveled to Pittsburgh, and the division leaders handed the Browns their lunch, defeating the Browns by a score of 38-7. Browns quarterbackBaker Mayfieldthrew for 119 yards with a pair of interceptions before being pulled in the fourth quarter.
Mayfield is scheduled to start this game, and this season has completed 103-170 passes for 1095 yards with ten touchdowns and six interceptions. Mayfield has suffered 11 sacks and has rushed for an additional 37 yards with two touchdowns.
Jarvis Landryleads the Browns with 24 receptions, and his 319 yards is tied withOdell Beckham Jr.Landry hasn’t scored a touchdown while Beckham has three touchdowns on 23 receptions.Austin Hooperplays a huge role with 205 receiving yards with a touchdown this season.
With reading rusherNick Chubbout for the foreseeable future andKareem Huntis now the primary ball carrier, rushing for 387 yards and three touchdowns with an additional 80 receiving yards and three trips to the endzone.
Cleveland allows an average of 31.2 points and 383.5 total yards of offense per contest. The Browns defense allows 289.5 passing and 94 rushing yards with 14 sacks and six interceptions, including one pick-six this season.
Bengals Lose to ColtsThe Bengals fell to 1-4-1 this season with a 31-27 road loss to the Indianapolis Colts. Joe Burrow threw for 313 yards with an interception and Joe Mixon rushed for 54 yards in a losing cause.
Burrow is having a promising rookie season, completing 160-246 passes for 1617 yards, six touchdowns with four interceptions. Burrow has been sacked 24 times with an additional 87 rushing yards with two touchdowns.
Mixon is the main ball carrier and has rushed for 428 yards with three touchdowns on 119 attempts and is listed as questionable for this contest. If Mixon can’t play, the Bengals haveGiovani Bernard waiting in the wings.
The Bengals defense allows an average of 26.2 points alongside 401.3 yards of offense per game. The defense allows averages of 259 passing with 142.3 rushing yards with ten sacks and six interceptions this season.
Stats & Trends
- Browns are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
- Browns are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite.
- Browns are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC North.
- Bengals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight-up loss.
- Bengals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
- Bengals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
The Browns opened as 4.5 point favorites, and that line has now moved to Cleveland being favored by 3.5 points. I don’t like how the Browns are playing, and they couldn’t cover the spread in their last meeting with Cincinnati, and I don’t think they cover in this game. The Bengals are 4-2 ATS this season, while the Browns are 3-3 ATS this season but 1-2 ATS on the road. Burrow is starting to figure things out, and while he will have to deal with the Browns edge rushers, he should be able to find Boyd, Higgins, and A.J. Green enough times to cover the spread. I will take the points and roll with Cincinnati on Sunday.