Two once-unbeaten NFL teams meet in the finale of week-six on Monday night as the Kansas City Chiefs travel to Bills Stadium for a date with the Buffalo Bills for a 5 pm EST kickoff. Each of these teams are coming off their first defeat of the season with Kansas City falling at home to division rival Las Vegas Raiders while the Bills were also stung on the road by a Tennessee Titans squad that utilized a balanced offensive attack to keep Buffalo's defense on its heels en route to the victory. Buffalo will return home after two-straight road games in hopes of increasing its record to 3-0 SU (3-0 ATS). However, Kansas City has not lost in two road games in 2020 while going 1-1 ATS during this time.
These teams have not met since 2017, when the Bills picked up a 16-10 road win as 8.5 point dogs. however, the Chiefs have dominated this series three of the last four games, overall, including a 17-14 win in Buffalo as two-point dogs in 2014. Important to note that Kansas City is 3-1 against the number in their last four matchups versus the Bills. Currently, the line favors the Chiefs by 3.5 points while the total stands at 57.5 points, up from 55 points at opening.
Chiefs seek 3rd-straight road winThe Chiefs have played some rough road outings already this year as they take out the Los Angeles Chargers in overtime in week-two while also taking out one of the best in the conference in the Baltimore Ravens a week later. However, Kansas City will have extra incentive to bring the focus and intensity for this matchup after they were destroyed by a Raiders offense that collected just under 500 total yards on the day, including 144 yards on the ground.
The Chiefs are ranked next to last in the NFL in stopping the run; However, their pass defense has really shined early on in 2020. Nonetheless, even their pass defense was enough against Las Vegas as QB Derek Carr torched them for 346 yards along with three TD's. Cornerback Bashaud Breeland caught his first pick of the year in the contest, however, while linebacker Willie Gay picked up his first sack of 2020. Linebacker Anthony Hitchens has been active on this side of the ball for the Chiefs this season and led the team with six tackles (4 assisted) while safety Daniel Sorenson (20 tackles) and Gay contributed as well with five tackles each. Nonetheless, the interior of the defense was constantly pushed around by the Raiders.
To make matters worse, the Chiefs' defensive end Mike Danna (5 tackles, sack) is out indefinitely with a hamstring injury while linebacker Anthony Hitchens (20 tackles) is questionable with a hand injury. This could very well be a week that the Chiefs can possibly step it up in defending the rush, however, particularly with the Bills averaging just 93 yards on the ground per game.
Pat Mahomes and the offense racked up over 400 yards on the Raiders at home last weekend while the QB was able to find Travis Kelce a total of eight times for 108 yards and a score while Tyreek Hill (3 rec, 78 yds) and Mecole Hardman (2 rec, 50 yds) also powered the passing attack. Expect the road team to test the secondary for the Bills, as Buffalo is ranked 24th in the league in allowing 264 passing yards per game. Important to note that receiver Sammy Watkins (21 rec, 222 yds, 2 TD's) is out indefinitely with a hamstring injury while the Chiefs are thinner up front in losing guard Kelechi Osemele for the season due to a knee injury.
And while the Bills have relied on a rush defense that is giving up 108 yards per game in 2020, this could be an opportunity for the Chiefs to get back on track in this area as the Bills were gashed by the Titans last weekend. Furthermore, Kansas City only rushed for only 80 yards versus the Raiders, with Clyde Edwards-Helaire having 40 of those yards along with Mahomes rushing six times for 21 yards and a score. Also, with former Jets running back LeVeon Bell joining the team in a recent trade, expect Kansas City to bolster their rushing attack for the remainder of the year.
Bills torched by Tannehill in road lossRyan Tannehill threw for a total of just 195 yards versus Buffalo, yet was responsible for three scoring tosses along with a rushing touchdown as the Bills fell behind en route to their first defeat of the season Tuesday night. QB Josh Allen finished his afternoon just 26-41 in the passing department for 283 yards and two touchdowns; However, he threw two huge picks during the contest which ultimately put his team behind the eight ball. Expect Allen and the offense for Buffalo to look to bounce back versus a Chiefs team that is also seeking to improve in the backend after being picked apart last weekend.
However, the Bills may be a bit thinner up front if guard Quinton Spain is not able to suit up due to a foot injury. Wide receiver John Brown (14 rec, 194 yds, 2 TD's) is probable with a calf injury while tight end Dawson Knox is questionable with a calf injury. Finally, running back Zack Moss has been dealing with a toe injury, yet is likely to start Monday night.
Receiver Stephon Diggs (36 rec, 509 yds, 2 TD's) is coming off a 100+ receiving yard performance versus the Titans, however, which was his second-straight outing to where he posted at least 100 yards along with six receptions. Expect the Bills to utilize Diggs early and often while also relying on Gabriel Davis (13 rec, 187 yds, 2 TD's) and Cole Beasley (24 rec, 313 yds, TD) to provide additional firepower on the outside. Important to note that Beasley and Davis are coming off productive games in combining for 11 catches versus the Titans for 101 yards.
Defensively, it is imperative that the Bills play well in this contest, that is if they want to remain competitive throughout. The Chiefs continue to rank in the top ten in the NFL in most major offensive categories and will also be very much ticked off after being outshined at home versus their division rival in the Raiders last weekend. This means that linebackers Jordan Poyer (27 tackles, sack, ff) along with Tremaine Edmunds (18 tackles) must step up for a Bills defense that is giving up over 28 points per game in 2020.
Of course, if linebacker Matt Milano (12 tackles, sack, INT) is not able to suit up due to pectoral injury, the play of Poyer and Edmunds will be even more critical. Linebacker Tyrel Dotson is also questionable for this contest with a leg injury while cornerback Tre'Davius White may miss the contest due to a back injury.
Stats & Trends
- Bills are 1-3 ATS in last 4 games versus Chiefs
- Chiefs are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
- Chiefs are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
- Chiefs are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
All signs point to the Chiefs getting back on track in this contest versus the Bills. And while Buffalo has really shined on the offensive end thus far in 2020, I expect the Chiefs to also have another productive day on offense as they will be going up against the Bills defense that can be mistake-prone in the secondary. This will be another very important AFC matchup for Kansas City as they illustrated in their meeting with the Baltimore Ravens weeks ago that they can not only move the ball on solid defenses, but can also stop highly ranked offenses as well. Expect them to outlast the Bills in this Monday night showdown while covering the spread for the fourth time in five matchups versus their conference foe.