Two of the worst teams in their respective conferences meet Sunday when the Jacksonville Jaguars host the Detroit Lions. The Jags have lost four straight and sit at 1-4, while the Lions are 1-3. These two teams haven't met since 2016, when the Lions prevailed 26-19 as 5.5 point favorites. In this week 6 matchup, the Lions are a 3.5 point favorite. Game time is at 1:00 p.m. ET at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville, Fla.
Lions have golden opportunityThe Detroit Lions are coming off a bye week, and it came at a good time. The Lions are 1-3 and sit near the bottom of the NFC North, just a half-game ahead of the 1-4 Vikings. But they have probably played better than their record indicates. They suffered a last-minute defeat in week one to the Bears, blowing a big lead. They got up early on the Packers, only to get blown out in the second half, and then they beat a good Arizona Cardinals team. Two weeks ago, before the bye, they played pretty well in a 35-29 loss to the Saints.
Their losses have all been against pretty good teams. This week, they have an excellent opportunity to get a win. The Lions average 24 points per game, which ranks 19th in the NFL. They have struggled in the fourth quarter, ranking 29th in fourth-quarter points. They have also struggled in the red zone, with 55% red zone efficiency, which is 22nd in the league. In terms of total yards, they average 356 per game, which is 24th. They rank 19th in passing yards with 254 yards per game and 22nd in rushing yards with 101 per game.
A big concern for the Lions has been its defense. The Lions give up almost 32 points per game, which ranks 29th in the NFL. In total yards, they give up 405 yards per game, which is 26th in the NFL. They are particularly bad against the run, giving up 170 yards per game on the ground, which ranks 30th.
Jags on four-game losing skidThe Jacksonville Jaguars are badly in need of a win. The Jags have lost four straight games to fall to 1-4. Unlike the Lions, the Jags have not played a tough schedule and have still lost. In the last three weeks, they have lost to the Dolphins, Bengals, and Texans. All three of those opponents were winless until they played the Jags. Last week, the Jags were destroyed by the previously winless Texans 30-14. The Jags gave up 486 total yards, including 357 yards in the air. Jags quarterback Gardner Minshew was 31 for 49 for 301 yards and two touchdowns, while Laviska Shenault had seven catches for 79 yards. Also, James Robinson rushed for 48 yards on 13 carries. Minshew had no interceptions, but Jacksonville lost two fumbles and got sacked four times.
The Jags average 23.8 points per game, which ranks 23rd in the NFL. They are better in the red zone, with 66% red zone efficiency, which is 12th in the league. In terms of total yards, they average 389 per game, which is 17th. They rank 9th in passing yards with 284 yards per game and 21st in rushing yards with 104 per game. Defensively, the Jags give up 29 points per game, which ranks 23rd in the NFL. Also, they allow 400 total yards per game, which 23rd in the league. They give up 261 yards per game in the air, which ranks 24th, and 138 yards per game on the ground, which ranks 25th.
Stats & Trends
- The Lions are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 6
- The Favorite is 4-0 ATS the last four games in this series
- Jaguars are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0.
Take the Lions here, giving up the points. As mentioned, the Lions are a better team than their record indicates. They have been most vulnerable to the run this year, and that has been their defensive downfall. Against New Orleans, they gave up 164 yards on the ground, and in a loss to the Packers, they allowed Aaron Jones to run for 168n yards himself. They have also struggled in the red zone. With a week off to lick their wounds and watch a lot of film, the Lions should be able to solve the Jags lackluster defense. Look for a lot of points, with the Lions prevailing and covering.