Friday, June 11, 2021 at 7:10pm EDT
The Colorado Rockies are struggling this season as they are fourth in the NL West with a 25-37 record. The Rockies are yet to announce officially who will be starting but according to Fangraphs, Kyle Freeland is expected to start here. He is coming off a loss against the Oakland Athletics where he lasted five innings and allowed five runs on 10 hits with a walk and a strikeout.
The Cincinnati Reds are trying to recoup from their slow stretch as they are currently fourth in the NL Central with a 29-30 record as they will be having righty Tyler Mahle on the mound here. He is coming off a win over the St Louis Cardinals where he pitched seven innings and allowed two runs on five hits with a walk and eight strikeouts.
Playing to the Back of the Baseball CardThe Colorado Rockies have been struggling but one player stepping up is right fielder Charlie Blackmon. He has a .789 OPS with four home runs and 33 RBI this season. He has been hitting great in their last 15 games as they have a slashline of .360/.458/.540 with a home run and 10 RBI with seven walks and strikeouts in that stretch. If he can continue stepping up and hitting for more power, it will be a great sign for the Rockies.
Kyle Freeland has not pitched enough this season in order to get his percentile rankings counted on Baseball Savant. He has an 87.4 MPH exit velocity, 8.7 barrel percentage, .250 xBA, and a 5.26 xERA this season. Freeland relies on five pitches (changeup, slider, fastball, sinker, curveball) and he needs to work on the changeup as it has a .500 batting average with one extra-base hit. He pitched once in 2019 against the Reds and he went four innings and allowed five runs on nine hits with no walks and three strikeouts without factoring into the decision.
Becoming a Household NameThe Cincinnati Reds have been doing well offensively and one big reason is right fielder Nick Castellanos. He has a 1.038 OPS this season with 12 homers and 33 RBI with a stolen base. He has been doing well in his last 30 games as he has a .381/.453/.593 slashline with three home runs and 13 RBI with a 14:26 walk-to-strikeout ratio in this span. If he can figure out how to drive the ball a little more, it will be a great sign for the offense to get going even more.
Just some early NL MVP candidate named "other". pic.twitter.com/dcbDPYLPq8— Cincinnati Reds (@Reds) June 10, 2021
Tyler Mahle has been doing a superb job this season according to his Baseball Savant page as he is in the 66th percentile in average exit velocity, 78th percentile in hard hit percentage, 74th percentile in strikeout percentage, and 76th percentile in xERA. He has three different pitches (fastball, slider, splitter) and his heater has been solid as it has a .198 batting average with 44 strikeouts this season. He pitched once against the Rockies this season and he pitched seven innings and gave up two runs on seven hits with no walks and four strikeouts in a no-decision.
Stats & Trends
- Colorado: 3-7 in their last 10 road games vs a team with a losing record
- Colorado: 25-51 in their last 76 games vs RHP
- Cincinnati: 5-1 in their last 6 games
- Cincinnati: 14-4 in their last 18 Friday games
Kyle Freeland has been struggling as each of his last three starts has him giving up more runs and hits than the previous one. Tyler Mahle is 3-0 with a 1.04 ERA in his last three starts so he has been on an incredible roll as of late. Cincinnati’s offense has been the better offense as well this season. All in all, go with the Cincinnati Reds to win at home against the Colorado Rockies.