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Wednesday Betting Playbook 10/22/14

Below is an analysis on how we believe our free picks will do today.  Lets cash some tickets!

Belmont Park

Best Bet: Race 9 – #9 Queen to Be

Best Value: Race 3 – #4 Miroc  

Confidence: ** Stars

Value Opportunity: ** Stars

Analysis: This Belmont meet has been great for us all year, but today’s card is not one I’m in love with.  The possibility of hitting winners is there, but the value is on the low side.  If we can get lucky and hit a price in third race it will certainly make the day, but that horse is low on my list as far as confidence goes.  Could be a day to stay away from Belmont.

Delaware Park

Best Bet: Race 8 – #8 Hello Prince

Best Value: Race 1 – #2 I’m Done

Confidence: ** Stars

Value Opportunity: *** Stars

Analysis: Closing day at Delaware provides us a decent amount of value with names we’re familiar with.  The fields are full for the most part as well, so I would expect those morning line odds to hold true.  Not completely confident in the selections but there is enough value you on the card to give it a go.

Delta Downs

Best Bet: Race 5 – #7 He’s So Proud

Best Value: Race 1 – #3 Heaven’s Cat

Confidence: *** Stars

Value Opportunity: *** Stars

Analysis: This card has a great blend of short prices and value play picks.  The hope here is to build your bankroll in races 2,3, 4, and 5 with short prices, and then catch a price horse in the later stages of the card.  The best value on the card is Heaven’s Cat in the first race, who has a good as shot as any in what looks to be a wide open scramble.  Delta can often be hit or miss, but I wouldn’t be afraid to take a swing tonight.

Gulfstream Park West

Best Bet: Race 4 – #4 Little Baker

Best Value: Race 5 – #3 Farleys Mandate

Confidence: * Star

Value Opportunity: ** Stars

Analysis: It’s becoming frustrating because my track record at Calder (now Gulfstream West) has always been good, but I’m struggling early in the meet with finding a winning pattern.  The picks certainly offer up some value for today, but I can’t give you a vote of confidence just yet.  Proceed with caution.

Hawthorne

Best Bet: Race 9 – #5 Germaine’s Boy

Best Value: Race 2 – #7 Solar Flair

Confidence: * Stars

Value Opportunity: **** Stars

Analysis: Talk about a meet that has been anything but chalky!  The value is here daily, and today seems to be no different.  The problem has been finding those long shots consistently.  It is currently our worst track percentage wise, but I do see us hitting a few today.  Another I’d proceed with caution on, but I’m more confident here than I am at Gulfstream.

Indiana Grand

Best Bet: Race 9 – #6 Dreaming of Kitten

Best Value: Race 2 – #6 The One Thing

Confidence: **** Stars

Value Opportunity: * Stars

Analysis: If you like cashing tickets you need to be playing this track today.  This looks like a very chalky day at Indiana, so value players beware!  However, that chalk will slowly make you a profit.

Keeneland

Best Bet: Race 2 – #4 Three D

Best Value: Race 6 – #3 A Day in Paradise

Confidence: * Star

Value Opportunity: *** Stars

Analysis: We may not have any long shots selected, but there are nice mid range prices all over this card today.  Keeneland had been a blessing to the Dudes this meet, after a disastrous Spring campaign.  However, this is not a card that is favorable today compared to past days.  The first four races will be critical on day I’m labeling as extremely hit or miss.  Risky…

Laurel Park

Best Bet: Race 1 – #3 Love Who

Best Value: Race 4 – #7 Center on the Moon

Confidence: * Star

Value Opportunity: **** Stars

Analysis: Yet another I’d label as risky today.  A lot of horses are running that we’ve had past success with, but they seem to be in tough races.  The prices are there for the taking, so if you don’t mind being patient and playing value this could be the track for you to play today.  You can’t give up on it though if you start off poorly.

Remington Park

Best Bet: Race 1 – #3 Light Striker

Best Value: Race 4 – #4 Flashy Sky

Confidence: **** Stars

Value Opportunity: ** Stars

Analysis: This card and Delta’s card are very similar.  Both have short price “bank roll builders” that should win, and also have a few price horses sprinkled in that look like they have solid shots.  Very playable card.

Woodbine

Best Bet: Race 7 – #3 Walkers Terrace

Best Value: Race 1 – #4 Divine Dance

Confidence: ** Stars

Value Opportunity: * Star

Analysis: It’s our inaugural year of covering Woodbine, and I’ll be the first to admit I’ve found it to be challenging at times. The synthetic surface can produce some strange results so it’s been a meet filled with adjustments.  I’m becoming more confident each day, but today’s card is not one I’m thrilled about.  Wednesday night cards are tough…

 

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