#4 PACIFIC HEAT – I’m going against my normal strategy of sticking with Baffert or Hollendorfer in races like this, and going outside the box with this pick. The talented displayed by Pacific Heat so far is just too hard to ignore as the filly slightly reminds me of California Chrome when he was bursting on the scene as a Cal Bred with big talent. She’s won her two races by a combined 20 lengths all while being hand ridden. Has to stretch out today, but just might be better than these at this point in time.
#1 TREASURING – Pretty N Cool will get the headlines, but I believe at this distance the Baffert horse to beat is Treasuring. It was a game effort last time out in a 100k stakes at Del Mar, and with the pedigree I think a stretch out will put this horse on the lead without problem…maybe even an easy lead. I don’t know if she’ll “run all day” but I certainly think she can go two turns without much issue. I like that Espinoza has stayed on to ride, and believe this horse is improving.
#3 STAY IN VEGAS – Has absolutely dominated her last two starts, but I do realize those races were on the turf. However, check out her three races before that which were all on the dirt. Two easy wins and a fifth place effort to Songbird in the Del Mar Debutante. Pretty N Cool finished ahead of her in the Debutante, but I believe the two turns suits this one a little better. We’ve already seen it on the turf and Stay In Vegas had zero troubles going a mile. I know the dirt is different, but at least she has prior dirt form that looks formidable.
#2 STREET FANCY – Finished neck and neck with Treasuring last time out, and should really like the stretch out today as her pedigree screams stamina. Had to close from way out of it last time and did nicely, but that kind of running style makes me a little leery of her being able to get up in time here against a solid field. If she manages to break a little cleaner this time perhaps she can lay closer and have a shot. Almost put her as a “likely winner” but think this section is where she truly belongs.
#9 PRETTY N COOL – No questioning that she is the most classy filly in the bunch, and perhaps the most talented as well although that subject offers more debate. If this race were at 7 furlongs or less she would be the pick, however I have very little confidence with her going a mile and one sixteenth. Should be classy enough to hang around for a chance to land a small piece of it, but don’t think she can beat a solid field going a route of ground. Also her race last time out was too bad to believe…has she peaked a little early?
#7 MAMA’S SUGAR – You never know with this one…could be a freak, or could have just caught a weak maiden field that she crushed by almost seven lengths on debut. I would definitely not leave her off any of my exotic wagers…especially the Pick 3, 4, or 6. She passed the eye test last time out now its just time to pass the class test. Nicely bred filly out of Lookin At Lucky should be ok with the distance…could be any kind!
#6 SURFSIDE TIARA – Hard to throw anyone out of this race, but you have to do it to someone. Has ran in two bigger stakes and one smaller one, and wasn’t much of a factor in either of the two bigger ones. Certainly has a shot, but just prefer others a bit more.
#5 PATRIOTIC DIAMOND – Not a bad horse here, but will be making her first start outside of state bred company, and was dominated by Pacific Heat in their only match up against each other. Can’t get excited about that.
#8 SUTTON’S SMILE – This horse has mostly all turf form, with her lone dirt race coming on debut where she finished sixth beaten 19 lengths. Still wouldn’t say she is a bad filly, but just not up to this level of competition.