Breeders' Cup

Jessamine Stakes Preview: Final Breeders’ Cup “Win and You’re In” Race

Keeneland Spring Meet 2015

Today’s JPMorgan Chase Jessamine (G3) is the final Breeders’ Cup “Win and You’re In” challenge race in which the winner will receive a fees-paid berth to the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1) at Santa Anita on Nov. 4. Here’s the race breakdown:

Top Choice

#2 La Coronel – Last time out trainer Mark Casse decided to run this horse on the turf, and it turned out very well.  After two average at best dirt races, she really flourished going two turn on the turf at Saratoga.  She crushed a decent maiden field that day including New Money Honey who came back to win the Miss Grillo Stakes at Belmont Park last weekend.  Obviously that flattered La Coronel quite a bit, and we all know how well Casse’s horses run in the state of Kentucky.  I’m expecting a huge effort today, and she’ll need to if she wants to beat this field.

Horses to Use in Multi Race Wagers

#4 Lull – After a terrifying incident at Saratoga where she feel down and we feared the worse thankfully she came out of it ok, and returned to win a 350k stakes at Kentucky Downs next time out.  She’s the deserving favorite today as she’s the most accomplished filly and comes in to Keeneland with a great trainer on her side.  After the Saratoga incident she’s made a lot of fans, and I expect that list of fans to keep growing as she’s one talented filly.  In with a big shot today.

#5 Sweeping Paddy – Wheels back fairly quickly for this spot today after an absolutely crushing win in a maiden special weight at Kentucky Downs last time out.  That twelve length victory turned a lot of heads, and Romans has been clear that they want to run her at the Breeders’ Cup.  This horse is bred perfectly for the turf, and could end up being any kind of filly.  This will be a fun one to watch today.

#7 Lipstick City – She’s only raced once in her career, but that race was a pretty nice maiden special weight win going a mile at Belmont Park.  That race came back pretty fast from a speed figure standpoint, and with Chad Brown training you would think she could take another step up today.  In her maiden race she got way behind and came flying late so it’s obvious she’ll need some pace to run into here, which is a very good possibility.

#14 Liberale – Comes over from France to the Chad Brown barn off a couple of decent efforts in her home country.  With this kind of ship in it’s hard to know what we’ll see, but we definitely know this is not one you can throw out.  Her connections most likely brought her over here for one reason: The Breeder’s Cup, and they’ve given her to the right trainer.  We’ll see what she’s got in this one.

Party Crashers

#6 Majestic Gale – Comes into this one on a two race win streak, including a stakes win last time out at Louisiana Downs.  This race will be much tougher than that one was, however she beat that field in Louisiana like a good horse should as she cruised to a four and a half length win.  She must run even faster today, but her last race showed that there could be plenty left in the tank.

#9 Majestic Bonnie – Spent her summer in Saratoga, and ran two very good races there when breaking her maiden around two turns on the turf and then finishing third in the PG Johnson to a couple of nice horses.  This class level won’t overwhelm her today, and her speed figures are at least in the realm they need to be in to have a shot.  At 10-1 or higher she might be worth a small gamble.

Throw Outs

#1 Senora Acero – Has had solid success at the lower levels, but needs to improving several lengths to have success in this spot.

#3 Wicked Lick – Recent maiden winner at Churchill Downs showed a little promise last time out, but I’m skeptical that she’s fast enough to compete at this level.  Must improve.

#8 Tapa Tapa Tapa – Tried the Grade 1 Natalma at Woodbine last time out, but could only manage a seventh place finish.  Did win two in a row before trying that race so could improve a little today, but I don’t think it will be enough to compete for the win.

#10 Rum Go – Switched to the turf last time out and got a nice win in a maiden special weight at Delaware Park, however she’ll have to run much faster today to have a chance.

#11 Divine Humor – Finally got her maiden broke last time out at Thistledown, but it took six races to get the job done.  She’s the least likely winner today.

#12 Zero Zee – Stretching out for the first time today, but was not match for the competition at five and a half furlongs in a small stakes at Laurel Park last time out.  The stretch out will have to improve her several lengths.

#13 Queen Del Valle – Rides a three race winning streak heading into this race, but this will be a big time jump up in class today.  Not sure she’s ready for this kind of competition.

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