#6 Emmzy – Just two weeks ago this filly was double entered in an allowance at Santa Anita and the Grade 3 Iowa Oaks. She chose the allowance at Santa Anita and went wire to wire to win, even though I was ready to pick her to win the Iowa Oaks. Since stretching out to two turns she has a perfect two for tow record, and her speed numbers are similar to anyone in this race today. Obviously today will be a step up in class, but Family Tree is a horse I thought Emmzy could beat in Iowa, and Family Tree ended up winning that race. Both of these filly’s look tough again today in this spot, but I’ll give Emmzy the nod today since I didn’t get the chance to do so in Iowa.
#7 Family Tree – Was able to win the Grade 3 Iowa Oaks just two weeks ago rather easily, and there is no doubt she could make it two wins in a row today. This field is very similar to what she faced last time out, and in all honesty could even be slightly easier. She’s about as classy as they came with her 7 for 8 lifetime record of hitting the board, and it’s even more eye catching that she’s ran at SIX different race tracks already. Will be in with a big shot, and would have easily been my top pick if not for my intrigue in Emmzy. Would be interesting if a horse Baffert formerly trained beat him in this spot.
#1 Dream Dance – Just looks to be the “hit the board type” as she has done so in 7 of her 11 starts, and has also done so in three Grade 2 races. However, in those 11 starts she’s only won twice. According to some reports from Churchill Downs this filly is working out pretty well so that is a positive for her going into the race. Last time out Family Tree finished ahead of her by a little over a length which is a negative, but it at least shows she fits in from a class standpoint with anyone in this spot. She’ll be around in the end fighting for position.
#5 Sweet Legacy – Two things have me slightly intrigued with this filly. First, she has two wins over the Indiana Grand surface. This is track has a uniqueness to it that can sometimes be tough on shippers so that could be a decent factor in her favor. Secondly, today she gets Corey Lanerie to ride which is eye catching because he’s never been on her before this race. My confidence is still a little shaky on her against this type of competition, but there are enough positives signs to think about playing her underneath.
#3 Mines and Magic – At the smaller tracks like this I love horses that have solid running lines from bigger tracks, and Mines and Magic fits that form today. She comes into this one off back to back wins at Churchill Downs even though those two wins were not against stakes company. Sometimes that doesn’t matter though as Churchill Downs wins can carry a lot of class. This is a step up today, but it’s a logical step up at least. If the price is right she could be worth a small shot.
#2 Dothraki Queen – She will probably be bet in this race, but it’s just hard for me to see her winning. Obviously the turf experiment didn’t work out so she’s back on her preferred surface which is good, but just hasn’t showed enough this year to get me excited.
#8 Walkabout – There is no doubt a lightbulb could have came on last time out when breaking her maiden impressively, but this is too much too soon I believe. Could end up being an ok horse, but would be shocked if she wins today.
#4 Missalaney – Both of her lifetime wins have come on the turf, and even her turf form doesn’t look good enough to beat these today. Don’t blame them for taking a shot, but probably needs a softer spot.