Keeneland Race #8: Phoenix Stakes (3:57 PM CST)
Win and You’re In for the Breeders’ Cup Sprint
Top Pick: #1 A. P. Indian
Others to Use in Multi Race Wagers: NONE
Analysis: The rains at Belmont Park last weekend muddied the Breeders’ Cup picture somewhat, and forced A. P. Indian to ship to the Midwest to run in this spot on Friday. Lucky for the New York horses…unlucky for any horse targeting this race. A. P. Indian has been nothing short of spectacular in his last four races, and is once again a stand out in this field. The only question mark for him will be how he runs outside the state of New York as all of his big wins have come at Belmont and Saratoga.
Even though I believe strongly that A. P. Indian is a single I do believe Ami’s Flatter will sit a pretty decent trip in this one and is the possible upsetter. With plenty of speed signed on Ami’s Flatter will be set up to make her normal late running move. The only problem is A. P. Indian will probably not engage in the pace and also could be ready to pounce when the front runners begin to soften.
A hard knocking horse that always puts in a solid effort is Alsvid, and I expect more of the same from him on Friday. He most likely cannot win, but is one to play underneath. W. B. Smudge can be put in that same category as Alsvid, although I don’t think he’s quite as talented and am sure he’s not as classy. Limousine Liberal has had a couple of chances lately against top competition and has not been able to make much of an impact. Rounding out the field are Cinco Charlie and The Great War, both of which will have to improve to get the job done against this field.
Keeneland Race #9: Alcibiades Stakes (4:30 PM CST)
Win and You’re In for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies
Top Pick: #3 Queen Bernardina
Others to Use in Multi Race Wagers: #6 Caroline Test, #8 Dream Dancing, #9 Price to High, and #13 For Honor
Analysis: It’s a 14 horse field of two year old filly fun! “It’s completely wide open” is probably the most over used phrase in racing, but it certainly explains this field perfectly. Since it is so wide open I went with a price in 10-1 shot Queen Bernardina. Last time out she was very impressive in winning at a mile at Churchill Downs which was the first time she has went longer than 6 furlongs on the dirt. Her speed figures put her right there with any of these, and I believe she’ll have a swift pace to run at here.
Caroline Test was my second place horse here with Dream Dancing coming in third. Last time out Carolina Test finished second in a 350k stakes at Keeneland behind a solid horse in Lull. Now she’ll go back to the dirt where she’s had success before when winning a maiden special weight at Ellis Park on debut. Dream Dancing wasn’t great over a muddy track at Churchill Downs last time out, so I’m willing to give her another shot on Friday in this spot. We’ll finally see if a fast dirt track is to her liking. Price to High and For Honor are the two others I’ve suggested to use on multi race tickets. They both are coming off impressive maiden scores last time out.
Sully’s Dream, I’mluckysgirl, and Daddys Lil Darling all exit the Pocahontas Stakes at Churchill Downs with Daddys Lil Darling actually winning that race. However, all three still have proving to do for me today. Fun, Lady Hansen, Cold Hearted Pearl, and Benner Island all exit stakes where they were unsuccessful, but Diadura was a winner of a stakes at Arlington last time out. Dancing Rags rounds out the field of 14 as she comes into this one off a maiden special weight win at Laurel Park last time out.